Skip to content Most real estate agents debate whether to focus on FSBOs or Expired listings based on anecdotal success stories and outdated industry wisdom. But what if we could settle this debate with actual data?
In our previous blog exploring Expired VS FSBO, we talked generally about which one best serves you, but now we’ve got thousands of data points to prove it.
REDX just completed our most comprehensive analysis of seller lead performance ever conducted in real estate. We tracked 2.7 million listings across all 50 states from May 2024 to January 2026, measuring everything from conversion rates to geographic performance to market volatility.
The results? Both lead types dramatically outperform your sphere of influence and internet leads – but they serve different strategic purposes in a winning prospecting plan.
Here’s what the largest dataset in real estate lead generation revealed about which lead source will actually grow your business.
Which Lead Type Actually Converts Better?
The bottom line first: Our analysis of 2.7 million leads shows expired listings will at 44.4% while FSBOs convert at just 31.8%. That means expired listings are more likely to result in a successful sale.
But before you write off FSBOs, consider this: 31% is still ~30x times better than internet leads and 4-6 times better than your sphere of influence. The real question is how to use both lead types strategically.
Why Do Expired Listings Convert Better Than FSBOs?
In the study, we learned that expired listings convert about 51% more often to a new listing than FSBO leads (in 30 days). The real question is why…
Expired listings have already raised their hand. They’ve tried working with a real estate agent, experienced the process, and understand the value of professional representation. Your challenge isn’t convincing them they need an agent, it’s proving you’re the right agent.
FSBOs represent untapped opportunity. While 38% of FSBOs eventually list with an agent (according to REDX data), most agents never call them. Emily Peckham discovered this advantage early. She built her entire business on FSBO leads after starting with no sphere of influence. In five years, she’s sold 160+ FSBO homes, and 50% of her listings come from FSBOs.
Here’s her secret:
“Most agents are intimidated by FSBOs, so there’s less competition. I booked 37 appointments from my first calls in one year alone.”
The Competition Factor: Why FSBOs Might Be Your Secret Weapon
Here’s where the data reveals something most agents miss: expired listings provide 36x more opportunities, but they also attract 36x more competition.
Our analysis tracked 2,646,580 expired listings compared to 72,940 FSBO leads. That massive volume advantage for Expireds comes with a downside: often times other agents in your market are calling the same expired listings on the same morning they appear.
Steve Matthews in Denver built his business around this insight. His business generates $300k in GCI with 35 transactions annually, and 65% of his volume comes from prospecting FSBOs. As he puts it:
“REDX makes prospecting profitable, and FSBOs give me sellers other agents aren’t fighting over.”
This is why the smartest agents start with expired listings to build their foundation, then add FSBOs to capture opportunities with less competition.
Which Lead Type Gets You Listings Faster?
Time kills deals, and our data shows expired listings move 7 days faster than FSBOs.
Expired listings re-list with a new agent in a national average of 39 days after appearing in our system. FSBOs take 46 days to give up their independent sale attempt and list with an agent. When you’re trying to maximize your listings per month, those 7 days add up quickly.
The speed advantage becomes even more pronounced when you consider the 44.4% re-list rate for expired listings versus 31.8% for FSBOs. Not only do more expired sellers eventually work with agents, but they do it faster.
Expireds VS FSBO: Best Markets for Each Lead
For the first time ever, we can provide state specific data for both lead types. The results show expired listings outperform FSBOs in 41 out of 50 states, but FSBOs dominate in specific markets where the strategy advantages compound.
Top 5 States for Expired Listings (by conversion rate):
- Nebraska: ~38.5% conversion rate
- Utah: ~35.9% conversion rate
- Georgia: ~33.1% conversion rate
- Louisiana: ~32.1% conversion rate
- Minnesota:~ 29.1% conversion rate
If you’re in any of these states, Expired Leads should be your top priority every morning at 8 a.m.
Top 5 States for FSBO Performance:
- Wisconsin: ~34.5% conversion rate
- Utah: ~34.4% conversion rate
- New Hampshire: ~24.0% conversion rate
- Michigan: ~23.6% conversion rate
- Indiana: ~23.4% conversion rate
What that means for you: If you’re in any of these states, REDX FSBO leads should be at least a portion of your lead generation strategy (if not your primary lead).
Wisconsin is FSBO territory: the only state where FSBOs significantly outperform expired listings. If you’re prospecting in Wisconsin, FSBOs should be your primary focus.
Utah represents the ultimate seller lead market: ranking #2 for both lead types. Agents in Utah have the luxury of choosing their preferred approach or working both simultaneously.
Which is better for creating consistent business?
Our week-over-week analysis reveals an interesting trade-off: expired listings provide more consistent income, while FSBOs offer potential for breakthrough months.
Expired listings maintain a steady conversion pattern with minimal variation (0.58 standard deviation). FSBOs show more volatility (2.76 standard deviation), which means some weeks produce exceptional results while others are quieter.
For agents, this creates different strategic opportunities:
Expired listings = Predictable base income. You can forecast your monthly listings based on daily activity. Joe Rosen built his business around this predictability. His business manages $26 million in volume with 80 transactions annually, getting 40% of his business from REDX prospecting.
FSBOs = Upside potential with less competition. When you connect with motivated FSBO sellers, you often capture multiple transactions (their sale + their purchase + referrals).
What Lead is Most Likely to Turn Into a Commission?
In general, Expireds are the most likely to turn into a commission for real estate agents, but all REDX leads have a higher chance of giving you commission than portal leads, or your sphere of influence.
Expired VS FSBO VS Internet Leads
To put these conversion rates in perspective:
- Expired listings: 22.8% conversion rate
- FSBOs: 15.0% conversion rate
- Pre-foreclosure leads: 15% re-list annually
- Your sphere of influence: 3-5% conversion rate
- Internet leads: 1% annual conversion
Both expired listings and FSBOs convert at rates that make your sphere of influence and internet leads look irrelevant. When you prospect motivated seller leads, you’re working with people who need to sell now – not someday.
Expired VS FSBO: Who wins?
Based on our analysis of 2.7 million leads, expired leads are the best lead for any real estate agent due to their high likelihood to list, and how quickly they are able to turn into commissions.
Best Lead Generation Strategy for New Agents
Based on this data, here’s our recommendation: start with expireds due to their consistency rate of relisting. Once you’ve mastered these leads and feel you need more leads to work to get where you want your business to go, add FSBO leads as a supplement to your business.
Once you’ve done that, you can optimize based on what your experience in your market looks like.
Phase 1: Master Expired Listings First
Why start here:
- Higher conversion rates (22.8%)
- Faster conversions (39 days average)
- More consistent, predictable income
- Sellers who already understand they need an agent
- Builds prospecting confidence quickly
Phase 2: Add FSBOs for Competitive Advantage
Why add FSBOs once you’re converting Expireds:
- Less agent competition (most agents avoid FSBOs)
- Relationship-building opportunities that create long-term referral sources
- Geographic specialization (dominate markets like Wisconsin)
- Upside potential for breakthrough months
- Market diversification when expired leads run thin
Melanie Hunt from Century 21 in Dallas exemplifies this approach. She’s used REDX for 12 years and closes about 125 deals per year, with 50-59% of her business coming from expired and FSBO combined. Her morning routine?
“I use REDX every morning to call the Expireds and the For Sale by Owners: they have always been a huge part of my business.”
The key insight: she mastered both to maximize her market coverage.
Phase 3: Optimize Based on Your Market
Once you’re proficient with both lead types, optimize based on:
- Your geographic market (Wisconsin agents should emphasize FSBOs)
- Your personality (relationship builders often excel with FSBOs)
- Market conditions (when expired inventory is low, FSBOs become more attractive)
- Competition levels (if every agent is calling Expireds, FSBOs offer better odds)
Ready to Build a Complete Seller Lead Strategy?
The data is clear: both expired listings and FSBOs dramatically outperform traditional lead sources, but they serve different strategic purposes in a complete prospecting plan.
Start with expired listings for consistent base income and faster conversions. Add FSBOs to capture opportunities with less competition and build long-term relationships.
According to our internal data, REDX agents take 3x more listings than the average real estate agent because they focus their prospecting energy on motivated sellers who are ready to move now – regardless of whether they’re expired listings or FSBOs.
The most successful agents in our system don’t choose between expired listings and FSBOs. They use both strategically to maximize their market penetration while minimizing competition.
Check out REDX to see how top-producing agents are converting both lead types into a steady stream of listings every single day.
