Updated February, 2026 – REDX Publishing Team
This chart shows your sphere of influence – the people who know you best, trust you most, and should theoretically want to work with you – listing their homes at about 2.9% annually. That’s it. Out of every 100 people in your database, fewer than 3 will actually list their home every year.
But look what happens when we expand the chart to other traditional sources of real estate income.
Expired listings convert at 43.4%. These are complete strangers who have never heard of you, yet they’re 15 times more likely to list their home than your own sphere of influence.
Why does this happen? It’s simple: motivation trumps relationship every single time. Your sphere of influence might like you, but they don’t need you right now. Expired listing homeowners? They’re in crisis mode. Their listing just failed, they’re frustrated with their current agent, and they’re actively seeking a solution.
Now lets look at this graph from Tristan Ahumada’s personal listing presentation:
This is what happens to buyer interest in a listing over time. Notice how it peaks in the first 30 days, then drops dramatically? By day 60, interest has plummeted. When a listing expires, that homeowner has just watched their property sit on the market with zero offers, watching this graph play out in real-time.
Here’s what top agent Kent Brown had to say about this graph and why most sellers unfortunately “chase the market down” in a recent Lab Coat Agents webinar.
Here’s what that means for you. If a property doesn’t sell within 90 days, it probably never will. So after a year of a property not selling, sellers are frustrated and looking for a change in the guard.
That’s your opportunity window. That 43% conversion rate exists because you’re reaching people at their moment of highest motivation. Many agents have thought of using expired listing postcards to try and get in front of these sellers but struggled to find success.
Here’s why: most agents completely mess up expired listing postcards. They send generic, salesy messages that get thrown in the trash. The agents who tap into that 43% conversion rate? They use a completely different approach.
Quick Links:
Look at this Reddit thread from a successful agent using ONLY postcards:
“I ONLY do postcards. But I recommend you ONLY do direct mail if you plan on doing it 100 times. Consistency is everything.”
This agent cracked the code. They’re not sending one postcard and hoping for magic. They’re building a systematic approach that leverages that 43% conversion rate through consistent, strategic messaging.
The key is understanding what expired listing homeowners are thinking:
According to the Data & Marketing Association, direct mail achieves a 9% response rate with house lists and a 4.9% response rate with prospect lists. This significantly outperforms digital channels like email (1%), paid search (1%), and social media (1%). For real estate agents, this translates to more opportunities to connect with potential sellers.
So how do you make an effective expired listing postcard? They need to address the exact concerns expired leads have, and here are 7 strategies the most successful postcard agents are using to make that happen.
Your postcards need to address these exact concerns. Here’s how the most successful agents do it:
Here’s a postcard example that gets people thinking.
Create this Canva Template Now!
Pro Tip: Include a brief statistic about your success rate with previously expired listings to build credibility.
This works because it directly addresses their biggest question: “What went wrong?” You’re not selling yourself – you’re offering valuable insight. Remember, 43% of expired listings will list again within 6 months. Position yourself as the agent who has answers.
This postcard demonstrates how your marketing strategy differs from what the seller has already experienced. It’s a perfect opportunity to showcase your unique value proposition.
Remember: The postcard itself serves as a sample of your marketing quality, so ensure it’s professionally designed and printed. REDX postcards might be a good place to start.
This approach positions you as a market expert by offering valuable insights about the seller’s specific neighborhood.
Important: Make sure your data is accurate and recent. According to Zillow Research, sellers expect agents to provide a comparative market analysis.
“Did you know that homes in [Neighborhood] are selling in an average of [X] days at [X]% of asking price? I’d love to show you how your home fits into today’s market with a free, no-obligation analysis.”
Nothing builds credibility like success stories. This postcard showcases how you’ve helped sellers in similar situations.
Elements to Feature:
Best Practice: Always get written permission before using client testimonials and photos.
Position yourself as an expert who specifically helps homeowners whose listings have expired.
Key Components:
Conversion Tip: Create a sense of urgency with a specific, time-limited offer such as a free professional home staging consultation.
This vulnerable approach builds trust:
“Hi [Name], I’m [Your Name] with [Company]. I noticed your home at [Address] didn’t sell. That’s frustrating. I’m not here to criticize your previous agent – I’m here to offer a fresh perspective. Sometimes a home needs a different approach. Can we talk? [Phone].”
This works because it’s human. This actually might work better if you don’t do a postcard, and just send a personal letter. That’s what Cindy Strait does and she gets more than 50% of her business from her personal letters.
This postcard identifies specific problems the seller likely encountered and offers concrete solutions.
Engagement Tip: Include a brief questionnaire or checklist for the seller to complete about their previous listing experience.
Remember that Reddit agent who said “only do direct mail if you plan on doing it 100 times”?
Here’s why they’re right: that 43% conversion rate isn’t from a single postcard. It’s from systematic, consistent contact with expired listings. Most agents send one postcard and quit. The successful ones understand that expired homeowners need time to process their frustration and consider their options.
The pattern successful agents follow:
Why does this work? Because that 43% conversion rate happens over time. Some homeowners relist immediately. Others wait 3 months. Some take 6 months to make a decision. Your job is to be the agent they remember when they’re ready.
Look at this chart one more time.
Every other lead source pales in comparison to expired listings:
The math is simple: If you want more listings, focus on expired listings. While other agents are fighting over cold leads and hoping their sphere of influence decides to move, smart agents are systematically working a lead source that converts at 43%.
Want to access the expired listing data that makes this system work? Check out REDX Expired Leads and REDX postcards today.